A Nuclear Weapon

The main objective of this study is to calculate the break out time (time required to acquire a minimum amount of nuclear material needed for a nuclear weapon) and nuclear weapons latency (time required to produce a nuclear weapon) for the historical case of India (the 1974 plutonium bomb test in Rajasthan-Pokhran). A software developed at Texas A&M will be used to calculate the latency value, further verifying the validity of the tool. To get an accurate latency value, we need to make three basic assumptions. First, predict the date of the decision to proliferate nuclear weapons. Second, build a possible proliferation pathways based on existed nuclear complexes and R&D. Third, set needed times for each activity in the proliferation pathways. To reveal the bias or possible errors of the tool, sensitivity analyses by varying activity time alterations to the proliferation pathways are planned. The entire Indian Nuclear fuel cycle and R&D complexes will be analyzed.

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