[SOLUTION] Potential Effects of Trade

MODULE TITLE IS TRADE THEORY& POLICY SO MUST BE FAMILIARECS3015 – Essay Choose one country X. Cannot be one of the examples in class: US, UK, China.Choose one topic Y: – Economic growth – Employment – Life satisfaction – Inequality – Cultural diversity — Corruption – Democracy – Your choice (to be submitted for approval)the prime minister of X is being pressurised by the World Bank to further integrate into the global economy by facilitating trade. The prime minister is hesitant and particularly concerned about the potential effect of trade on Y. She puts you in charge of writing a report on the topic.The report should contain the following sections:1. Highlights (100 words) It should give the 3 to 5 main takeaways of your essay, in bullet points.2. Description of the context (300 words) You should give a succinct description of the trade patterns of country X, its openness to trade, its trade balance and their recent evolution over the past 40 years, with respect to neighbours and similar countries. One graph for each should be included. Also comment on the composition of exports and imports (raw materials, agricultural products, manufacturing, high tech, tourism, financial services) and on trading partners (very diversified, mainly rich countries, mainly poor countries).3. Theoretical background (300 words) It should use models seen in class, but should not be limited to those. You may refer to other models in the literature (reference them) and to arguments that you carefully developed yourself. You do not need to be exhaustive, concentrate on just a few (2 or 3) mechanisms that seem the most relevant to you.4. Empirical exercise (400 words) It should present a short econometric analysis of the effect of trade on Y, using cross country and/or cross-time variation. It should mention which measures you use for both Trade and Y, as well as the set of countries and the timeframe you are examining, and why. It should also discuss the different possible interpretations of the relationship between trade and Y, in particular the possibility of a causality running from Y to trade, or from a third factor to both trade and Y. (I HAVE AN EXCEL DATA WHICH YOU NEED TO COMPLETE THIS PART)5. Policy recommendation (300 words) It should mention whether you recommend that country X pursues opening to trade or instead maintains or increase trade protection, in particular in the view of addressing the concerns of the prime minister concerning Y. It should also identify the possible winners and losers of your recommendations, and suggest measures to make them acceptable to the largest numberYou should make references to the material covered in class, as well as your own readings. It has to be well-researched, well-written and well-referenced (see www.citethemrightonline.com ). Academic references are of great importance, so essays that reference some appropriately will get a better mark

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